Mexicos middle class, disenfranchised by the political system, including some of whom did vote for AMLO last time around, are now saying, What do I get from my government? Which begs the question: Who will succeed him in that office? Edited by Liz O. Baylen and Mike Benoist. Former Vice President MikePence andFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis are expected to enter the Republicanarenaas well both have made recent visits to Iowa, where the GOP's first primary contest will being held. With that, on 4 February, the call for consultation was approved, causing the installation of 57,377 polling stations and 1.5 billion Mexican pesos available for the INE, less than half of the initially requested money. Join FPs reporters in conversation with FP executive editor Amelia Lester for a wide-ranging discussion about how Washington is thinking about Beijing now. Mexican general election is not a public holiday in 2023. Opponents dubbed it the Dont Say Gay bill. o get tough on Beijing. MORENAs nominee will be selected through a series of polls of party members, but the result is likely to be in line with AMLOs wishes. Official campaigning starts April 4. Maybe the Feb. 6 earthquake was just that. Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and Foreign Minister. Hector Vivas/Getty Images March 23, 2023, 9:41 AM Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador has. Biden's long-awaited announcement came early the morning of April 25 with a three-minute video indicating the President planned to run for a second term. MEXICO CITY, April 10 (Reuters) - Nine out of ten Mexicans voting on Sunday in an unprecedented recall election engineered by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador backed him to stay in office . The presidents attention is devoted to lining up a successor, but several figures in the ruling party want the nomination. Coming out of the referendum, the president and his backers will be able to point to the overwhelming support for Mr. Lpez Obrador and his political project among his base, even at a moment of weakness. The day marks the new president of Mexico taking office. in Mexico City, in defense of INE have demonstrated Mexicans desire to uphold the two-party system. In contrast, the president and other government figures assured that the organization did have the appropriate money. MEXICO CITY -- Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador held a massive rally in Mexico Citys main plaza attended by tens of thousands of people Saturday. Among the worst-performing countries in the region are Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and most recently, Haiti. Its also concerning to note that major opposition figures who have stated an interest in competing in 2024 are facing investigations and criticism from government figures and entities controlled by AMLO or his allies. MEXICO CITY Pitched by the president as a landmark exercise for Mexicos democracy, Sundays recall referendum gave voters the chance to remove their head of state from office for the first time. Are U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan finally listening to their European counterparts and advocating for a softer approach on China? Augusto Lpez has demonstrated his loyalty to the president, even when it involves him in controversy. In fact, before presidents were limited to eight years in office,President Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected four times. Among the worst-performing countries in the region are Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and most recently, Haiti. TALLAHASSEE, Fla. Florida Gov. But far from the seismic shift that a recall referendum of a president might have brought, this vote appears to have merely underscored the acrimony of Mexican politics. Trump is fighting Democrats, DeSantis is fighting a mouse, said a member of the Florida GOPs state executive committee who supports DeSantis running for president. She also lacks AMLOs charisma, which may limit her broader appeal. With the next presidential election about two years away, the recall referendum also presented an opportunity for Mr. Lpez Obrador to test his partys strengths and weaknesses across the country, and determine who might be best positioned to succeed him. : Your everyday questions, answered. Another contender facing pressure from AMLOs allies is the president of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), Alejandro Moreno. Although Ebrard has been a loyal Lpez Obrador follower since the early days of his presidency, interestingly he is not registered officially within the Morena party. There have been many presidentswho served more than one four-yearterm. The reforms arent a done deal yet: The Mexican Supreme Court still has a say. "Let's finish this job I know we can," Biden says in the clip. And if theres any announcements, you know, those will come at the appropriate time, but its not if anyones telling you that somehow they know this or they know that, thats just inaccurate, because theres not been any decisions.". Mexico City . DeSantis, long viewed as Trumps strongest Republican challenger in 2024, has traveled far outside Florida in recent weeks to raise his profile. It may all boil down to whether or not the middle class has had enough of AMLO and his so-called Fourth Transformation (4T) politics, and whether they are ready to vote. The worry is that these reformsthe presidents second bite at the applesignal a larger trend away from the democratic system that has dominated in Mexico for more than two decades, making voting more difficult and reducing trust in elections. Original music by Dan Powell and . Ron DeSantis is poised to jump into the presidential fray as soon as mid-May, four GOP operatives familiar with the conversations told NBC News. The opposition, meanwhile, is struggling both to find an attractive message and to select someone who can compete against MORENAs candidate, whoever AMLO ends up choosing. Nine out of ten Mexicans voting on Sunday in an unprecedented recall election engineered by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador backed him to stay in office, underlining his . the governments unpopular economic policies and its slow response to the Feb. 6 earthquake, which claimed more than 50,000 lives. Thats a reversal of fortune for DeSantis, who over the past year has generally been competitive with Trump in one-on-one Republican primary polls. It seems that only an act of God could dislodge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Millions of Mexicans vote for their next president, as well as deputies and senators, on general election day. Perhaps conscious of recent tensions with the United States over U.S. overdose deaths from fentanyl smuggled in from Mexico, Lpez Obrador spent part of his speech praising former U.S. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who didn't actively oppose the 1938 oil expropriation despite the fact many of the firms were American. Lopez Obrador's successor is scheduled to be elected in June 2024. What are Mexicans voting on? They are hiding the ballot boxes, he added. The worry is that these reformsthe presidents second bite at the applesignal a larger trend away from the democratic system that has dominated in Mexico for more than two decades, making voting more difficult and reducing trust in elections. ", "AMLO registra en diciembre su mejor nivel de aprobacin del 2021", "ENCUESTA: Baja aprobacin de Lpez Obrador", "Gira por EU 'da alas' a AMLO: Aprobacin repunta a 66% en noviembre", "AMLO sube aprobacin, pese a percepcin en seguridad", "Mexicanos difieren con AMLO sobre crticas a la UNAM", "Mes patrio le da 'empujoncito' a AMLO': sube a 61% de aprobacin", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Mexican_presidential_recall_referendum&oldid=1123767676, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles needing translation from Spanish Wikipedia, Articles containing Spanish-language text, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. [7] In December, once endorsed by 17 state congresses, the decree was published in the Official Journal of the Federation. Newly declassified documents contain important lessons for U.S. China policy. The INE, which started preparations in August 2021,stated that there was a lack of resources for the consultation organization, causing it to challenge the budget approved by the Chamber of Deputies and ask the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation for their stance. There are no charismatic silver bullets waiting in the wings to be thrust forward by any party, no political superstar with charisma, intelligence, political savvy, massive campaign funds or any combination there of, who will do the trick. The last one was in 2020, so the next contest for the highest office in the nation will be in 2024. One-stop digest of politics, economics, and culture. As the next presidential elections draw nearer, the broader backdrop is discouraging. Lpez Obradors Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy. Explore the benefits of your FP subscription. Delivered Monday-Saturday. [9] At the start of August 2021, after the corruption trial referendum, Lpez Obrador insisted that he himself would promote the recall election. But Berthin noted that 22 of the 35 countries in the Americas are staying the democratic course, and four nations are even improving. His campaign has filedpaperwork with the Federal Election Commission confirming those plans. Some of his backers are urging him to declare as early as May 11, to counter the creeping national narrative that former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming front-runner for the 2024 GOP nomination. Mexicans will vote to fill more than 20,000 posts. The fact that more than 16 million people turned out to cast their ballots could also work in the presidents favor, analysts said. The members of the legislature elected on this date will be the first allowed to run for re-election in subsequent elections. Colombia, in particular, moved from partially free to free in Freedom Houses latest report, jumping six points from last year. Americans vote for a new president every four years, as outlined in the U.S. Constitution. To find out, FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke to John Kerry, Bidens special envoy for climate. To find out, FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke to John Kerry, Bidens special envoy for climate. The president also has the right to issue . [5] A candidacy by Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, son of former presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta, has been floated around by the media.[5]. Luis Antonio Rojas for The New York Times. They are practically family, a fact that represents a clear advantage for Lpezs possible candidacy. 3 clues to track and his approval rating isn't one of them, Donald Trumps Republican support erodes in Iowa, even as many remain committed, RNC chair says 2024 GOP candidates must sign pledge to participate in debates, Former governor on White House campaign: 'Why not me? ', Stay up to date on political news: Sign up for our OnPolitics newsletter. The leader of Turkeys main opposition party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is currently leading in the polls. Our new issue explores the consequences for climate change, trade, the China-U.S. competition and more. So @JoeBiden , the president of Mexico announced he was going to interfere with the next Presidential election.. but I doubt you'll do anything about it, since with all your failures he's doing it for your Marxist DemocRat party. Watchthe full discussion on video orreada lightly edited and condensed transcript, exclusive to FPInsiders. What does President Luiz Incio Lula da Silvas return mean for Latin America and its role on the world stage? The economy contracted 8.5% in 2020, though it is now clawing back . On Sunday, almost 18 percent of the electorate cast their ballot, far less than was needed for the result to become binding, making the outcome largely symbolic. Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador speaks in Mexico City on June 28, 2022. People from Morena itself have said that they know its unconstitutional, but they dont care. Mexican citizens cast their votes during the general election (Elecciones generales de Mxico) on the first Sunday of July every 6 years. A good politician knows when their moment is and they seize the opportunity; theres no question that the door is swinging against DeSantis, said Dennis Lennox, a Michigan-based Republican strategist who wants to support DeSantis in 2024. Mexico's constitution of 1917 established economic and political principles for the country, including the role of its president. By gutting the INE, one of the countrys most revered and respected agencies, Lpez Obrador threatens to end the longest period of political stability and democratic governance in Mexicos modern historymuch of which has been owed to the watchdog role played by the INE. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Gonul Tol, the founding director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute. The institutes request for more funding from the federal government to oversee the vote was rejected. Our countries are not isolated islands, said Lorenzo Crdova Vianello, director of INE. I think it was a very good turnout, taking into account very unfavorable conditions for people to vote: there was no clear opponent, there was no competition., She added: It was almost like a symbolic battle.. Mexican general election does not occur in 2023. Criticism has mounted over Show morethe governments unpopular economic policies and its slow response to the Feb. 6 earthquake, which claimed more than 50,000 lives. 2016, 2018, 2020. So the new date of President's Day will fall between February 15 and the 21st each year and never on his (Washington's) actual birthday of February 22nd. On the Democratic side, Marianne Williamson, an author and spiritual leader is the first to announce her candidacy, running on a progressive platform. If you look at how [Hugo] Chvez came to power in Venezuela or [Daniel] Ortega in Nicaragua, to pick two countries, they started out playing within the democratic system. 'I won't even think about leaving': Trump at CPAC says indictment wouldn't push him out of 2024 race, 2024 presidential race has a new player: A special counsel investigating Donald Trump. For the poor, Morena is seen as a champion of their causes, working to end corruption, one of AMLOs catch phrases, although according to the World Justice Project index, Mexico has fallen nine points in just the last year to 113th place out of 139 countries in terms of fighting corruption. To be valid, the recall must be approved by an absolute majority of valid votes, and the turnout must be at least 40%. Explore the benefits included in your subscription. Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. Mexican general election is not a public holiday in 2023. Blas Ramos, 69, an electrical engineer, held up a sign reading Get out of Mexico, FBI, CIA, Gringos!. Elections are always tricky to predict, even in the most stable governments. The president has launched attacks on the electoral institute (INE), which has guaranteed free and fair elections over the past 20 years, including the one AMLO himself won in 2018. As long as institutions are being undermined by personalistic or caudillo-like figures, I think the vulnerability of democratic gains will continue to be the trend, Berthin said. 1. Stay updated on the topics you care about with email alerts. A former Mexican security officials corruption charges reveal the hidden politics of the drug trade. Its a strange year for climate policy in the United States. Create an FP account to save articles to read later and in the FP mobile app. But he would settle for anyone Morena choose. Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? Sunday's elections were the. The issue with this early dispute is that the government, which should be focused on attracting investment, combating organized crime and rebuilding a severely deprived public health sector after the pandemic, is instead laser-focused on the 2024 elections. Delivered Wednesday. So while a lot of time over the next two and a half years will be spent looking at potential candidates records and characters in all of the parties, it may not really matter. Do not translate text that appears unreliable or low-quality. The discussion with former secretary of state Kerry serves as a preview to FPs annual climate summit. He is perceived as a man that would favor his own agenda before that of the Fourth Transformation and will likely be chosen only if AMLO sees no other way for MORENA to keep the presidency. That is especially true for the Morena party, which was largely built around Lpez Obrador. Instead, like so much in the countrys polarized politics these days, the vote became one more trench from which each side of the political spectrum could do battle. Privacy & Terms. A monthly digest of the top articles read by FP subscribers. Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. There are more than 1,900 mayoral contests and local . Many Mexicans celebrate Mothers Day as a festive family event in which mothers are given cards, flowers, and presents. PUERTO VALLARTA, Jalisco Leftist Mexican President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador (AMLO) is now halfway through his six-year term, and has promised to not try to stay in office when that term expires on Nov. 30, 2024. Youre on the list! He is the only Republican who can beat Joe Biden. Though it was called to commemorate Mexico's 1938 expropriation of the oil industry, many of those attending the rally Saturday agreed that it was the de-facto opening salvo to the 2024 elections that will choose the presidents successor. The governing Morena party was expected to hold between 190 and 203 seats in Mexico's lower house of Congress, a decline of up to 60 lawmakers, according to preliminary results released late on. EXCLUSIVE 2024 Election Ron DeSantis is set to jump into the 2024 presidential fray in mid-May The Florida governor is poised to launch his presidential exploratory committee next month.. On the other side, the opposition viewed the exercise as an attempt to shore up the presidents hold on power. Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador won the presidential election on July 1, 2018 to become President-elect. The wild card in this particular electoral round is that there may not be enough cash to pay more voters as a counterbalance to Mexicos now-angry middle classes, who may come out to vote in mass on principle. The waves of massive protests in several Mexican cities, including a crowd of more than. So is it really about the numbers? A second operative said the meetings signal a likely presidential launch sooner than some expect, even as DeSantis has increasingly faced headwinds and fledgling poll numbers in recent months. Lpez Obradors Reforms Threaten Mexican Democracy. The important thing is for the ideology of Lpez Obrador to continue, Martnez said. Mexicowhich has only held what are considered free and fair elections since 2000, when Vicente Fox was elected president with the National Action Party (PAN)is a democracy in diapers, Castaeda said. There are some real concerns about whether Mexicans will continue to believe in their democratic system and their democratic institutions if the reforms play out the way President Lpez Obrador seems to want, in the sense that he wants the legislation to be upheld, said Andrew Rudman, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center. Which perspective has more value? Two other Republicans ex-South Carolina Gov. If possible, verify the text with references provided in the foreign-language article. And the Morena government knows far too well that it cannot control the middle class, because that group has not gotten anything out of the AMLO administration, unless substandard public schools, overcrowded and underfunded health care, and a weakened buying power constitute a benefit. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. He has shown some troubling instincts of lack of tolerance for opposition, a willingness to compromise with a military that has deeply anti-democratic characteristics, and a willingness to challenge traditional institutions, Carothers said. Please follow our comment guidelines, stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others beliefs. The president has spent much of his term in campaign mode, traveling the country to meet with voters and keep his base energized. But they will likely have the opposite effect and help usher Lpez Obradors preferred successor into office. Background [ edit] Alberto Martnez, 59, said he hoped Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum would be the party's nominee. Alito, as he is known, is under investigation by the attorney general in his home state of Campeche. The next Mexican presidential elections are barely on the horizon. There has been a long trend of really significant anti-democratic instincts in Lpez Obrador, said Thomas Carothers, co-director of the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A July 22 editorial in the Washington Post, which admittedly is not a great fan of AMLO, titled Who Will Be Mexicos Next President? Heserved threeconsecutive terms in the White House before dying on April 12, 1945, in the middle of his fourth. Moreno alleges a campaign against him by MORENA and that the recordings are not authentic. Delivered Wednesday & Sunday. And, as several countries in the Americas have seen during recent years, democracy is not an easy road. Lpez Obradors gambit is the latest in a line of incumbent power grabs in the hemisphere, including insurrections and doubt about electoral integrity stoked by former U.S. President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, former Peruvian President Pedro Castillos attempt to dissolve Congress late last year, and El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukeles widespread undermining of democratic controls. If Erdogan loses, will there be a peaceful transition of power? AMERICAS SOCIETY/COUNCIL OF THE AMERICAS. Nov. 5, 2024 . Time and Date AS 19952023. The vote has flummoxed even some of DeSantis closest Republican supporters, who say a focus on things like Walt Disney World are hurting him in the polls and with prospective supporters. Most polls show Sheinbaum as the front-runner in the race, followed by Foreign Relations Secretary Marcelo Ebrard. Even some non-aligned countries have cautiously signaled support. For the particular modifications in the Constitution, the Chamber of Deputies voted 356 in favor and 84 against. Rocio Fabbro is an intern atForeign Policy. The referendum is typical of Mr. Lpez Obradors governing style. , nine of the 35 countries in the Americas saw a decline in their scores since last year. Keep up with the world without stopping yours. Yes and no. [8], Despite being planned for 2021, the constitutional changes stipulated its realization one year later, in 2022. ), Poll shows Trump lagging: Donald Trumps Republican support erodes in Iowa, even as many remain committed, Republican loyalty pledge: RNC chair says 2024 GOP candidates must sign pledge to participate in debates. Lpez Obrador thundered against the U.S. proposals. Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. [5], Enrique Alfaro, governor of Jalisco, has expressed his desire to be the candidate of his party, the Movimiento Ciudadano. She was elected mayor as a feminist with a progressive agenda, but in trying to please AMLO, Sheinbaum has changed her tune, initially dismissing feminist street protests (an attitude in line with the presidents approach to discontent with his government). Although Mr. Lpez Obrador fell far short of the 40 percent participation required to make the results count, marshaling more than 15 million people across the country to vote in his favor underscores his ability to mobilize his base at a time when his governments achievements are under scrutiny. This train is already in motion, somebody just to get aboard and drive it.. This page was last edited on 25 November 2022, at 15:39. After that, the party's candidate is likely to take center stage. But some of DeSantis allies have started to question his readiness as his poll numbers have lagged and he has fell victim to a series of self-inflicted wounds. The Constitution spells outjust three requirements to hold the presidency. This is a movement that began a long time ago, he said. (Required). You may opt out at any time. The president of Mexico cannot be re-elected after serving a six-year term, according to the countrys constitution. DeSantis is the only Republican who can beat Trump. Add to that the Mexican components of political subtexts, conspiracy theories and dubious opinion-polling, it could be a huge leap to make a prediction a little less than three years out. FP contributors top titles to make sense of the country ahead of its most important election, Report:
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